By David Dykes Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, spoke to an Accelerate luncheon at the Champions Club at Fluor Field in Greenville on Aug. 8, 2022, and said the Fed’s responsibility is to act to reduce inflation and stabilize expectations, and it’s doing so. But it will take time to bring inflation back to a 2 percent target, he said. “The Fed’s tools don’t work immediately,” Barkin said. “They work over time so you shouldn’t expect inflation just to plummet back to 2 percent suddenly.” He added, “After you’ve had a decade of stability, and you replace it with two years of volatility, it’s like the aftershocks of an earthquake. It just takes a while for this amount of volatility to settle down back to target.” He sees inflation coming down in three ways. First, demand should flatten, reducing pricing pressure. He believes higher interest rates should slow the economy by increasing borrowing costs and discouraging spending and investment. Secondly, he said, pandemic supply chain challenges should heal as pandemic pressures ease and companies adjust. There are early signs of this healing, he added, with freight costs decreasing, large retailers announcing they are now more fully stocked, and employers having more hiring success. The third involves commodities, like oil and wheat. Over the last couple of months, the dollar has strengthened, and gasoline and even the broader range of commodities dropped from peak pricing levels, Barkin said. A recession could happen, but most importantly, Barkin believes moderating demand has a higher purpose squarely in the Fed’s mandate: containing inflation. Wells Fargo economists reported consumer price inflation surprised to the downside in July, with the headline index flat over the month and core prices rising 0.3 percent. Falling prices for gasoline, used autos and travel service categories such as airline fares, car rentals and lodging away from home helped cool monthly inflation from the torrid pace seen in May and June, the economists said. Accelerate is Greenville’s private sector-fueled economic development initiative. It exists above and beyond regular Greenville Chamber initiatives in an aggressive and forward-thinking effort to cultivate further growth. |